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Autordc.contributor.authorPliscoff, Patricio 
Autordc.contributor.authorLuebert Bruron, Federico José es_CL
Autordc.contributor.authorHilger, Hartmut es_CL
Autordc.contributor.authorGuisan, Antoine es_CL
Fecha ingresodc.date.accessioned2014-12-23T12:17:01Z
Fecha disponibledc.date.available2014-12-23T12:17:01Z
Fecha de publicacióndc.date.issued2014
Cita de ítemdc.identifier.citationEcological Modelling 288 (2014) 166–177en_US
Identificadordc.identifier.otherDOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.06.003
Identificadordc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/118002
Nota generaldc.descriptionArtículo de publicación ISIen_US
Resumendc.description.abstracttThe effects of using alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictionsand future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) and its consequences on extinction riskestimates have remained insufficiently studied.Here, we modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect.Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied asequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climaticpredictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensembleforecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effectsof using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projectionsof SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Our Results show that the use of different setsof climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance,but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions and extinction risk estimates. Thisform of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk may need to be better acknowledged andquantified in future SDM studies.en_US
Patrocinadordc.description.sponsorshipFieldwork was partially supported by NSF(DEB 0415573 to Michael Dillon and Jun Wen), CESAF-Chile andFondecyt-Chile (Nr. 1030813 to Rene Torres and Nr. 11085016 toA. Moreira-Mu˜noz). This research received support from the Syn-thesys project http://www.synthesys.info/, which is financed byEuropean Community Research Infrastructure Action under theFP6 “Structuring the European Research Area” Programme (GB-TAF4514) and the FP7 “Capacities” Programme (ES-TAF 136).en_US
Idiomadc.language.isoenen_US
Publicadordc.publisherElsevieren_US
Tipo de licenciadc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Chile*
Link a Licenciadc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/cl/*
Palabras clavesdc.subjectAtacama Deserten_US
Títulodc.titleEffects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distributionmodels and associated estimates of extinction risk: A test with plantsin an arid environmenten_US
Tipo de documentodc.typeArtículo de revista


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