GPS-derived interseismic coupling on the subduction and seismic hazards in the Atacama region, Chile

Abstract

The Atacama region (between 29◦S and 25◦S) is located in the North-Central area of Chile, a tectonically complex transition area between North and CentralChile. Deformation in Atacama is due mainly to elastic loading on the subduction interface but also to diffuse shortening in the Sierras Pampeanas, Argentina. The seismicity of the subduction is complex in this region: seismic swarms often occur,moderate (Mw ∼6) to large (Mw ∼7) earthquakes occur repeatedly and finally, megathrust earthquakes of magnitudes significantly larger than 8 occur once in a while, the last one being in 1922—almost a century ago.We use new GPS data we collected in the Atacama region between 2008 and 2012 to complete and densify existing data we acquired since 2004 in North-Central Chile. These new data allow to quantify the motion of the Andean sliver and assess the kinematic coupling on the subduction interface at these latitudes.We find that only 7 per cent of the whole convergence motion is taken up by an eastward rotation of the rigid sliver. A large part of the remaining 93 per cent (approximately 6 cm yr−1) gives way to accumulation of elastic deformation in the upper plate, due to locking on the plate interface. This accumulation shows important along-strike and along-dip variations, interpreted in terms of variable coupling which we correlate with seismicity.We identify two areas of low coupling near the ‘La Serena’ (30◦S) and ‘Baranquilla’ (27.5◦S) bays. Both are correlated with the subduction of singular bathymetric features and seem to stop the propagation of large seismic ruptures. These zones are also seismic swarm prone areas, which seem to occur rather on their edges. These low coupling areas separate two seismic segments where coupling is high: the Atacama segment (∼100 km long between 29◦S and 28◦S) and the Cha˜naral segment (∼200 km long between 27◦S and 25◦S). Should they rupture alone, these segments are sufficiently coupled and apparently since long enough, to produce Mw ∼ 8 events. However, a collective failure of both segments could generate a megathrust earthquake of magnitude close to 8.5, similar to the 1819 and 1922 complex events, which produced important tsunamis. Such giant events may occur in the area once a century.