Assessing the growth of residential PV exports with energy efficiency and the opportunity for local generation network credits

Abstract

An unprecedented expansion of household photovoltaic (PV) systems coincided with a marked decline in household electricity demand in several jurisdictions around the world. This was driven by falling PV prices and the installation of more energy efficient residential appliances (EE). However, existing net metering arrangements value self-consumption of PV far more than PV exports to the grid. As a result, energy savings from EE that considerably reduce household PV self-consumption could also reduce the value of PV systems. Since PV exports generally utilise only part of the distribution grid, ‘local generation network credits’ (LGNCs) have been proposed to increase the value of PV exports. LGNCs also have the potential to improve the combined value of PV and EE. Given the large variability of the household PV generation and load and the time-varying structure of LGNCs, an empirical probabilistic method is proposed in this paper in order to assess the combined PV-EE value with the LGNC arrangements. The results show how simplistic feed-in tariffs have an adverse impact on the combined PV-EE value and how LGNCs can assist in removing barriers to the combined uptake of these two key clean energy technologies.