Consumption modeling based on Markov chains and Bayesian networks for a demand side management design of isolated microgrids

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel simulator of energy consumption patterns that allows designing demand side management(DSM) strategies without economic incentives. The simulator emulates consumers’patterns with and without installedDSM interfaces, based on both actual consumption measurements and surveys applied to the inhabitants of an existing iso-lated microgrid (Huatacondo, Chile) that has a particular DSM strategy without economic incentives. The simulator usesMarkov chains to generate data characterizing consumption patterns without DSM and Bayesian networks for cases inwhich the users respond to the DSM strategy. Data obtained from the simulator are used to derive a response model ofthe consumers to the DSM interface, which can be included for the energy management system design. Results show thatthe implemented strategy can be effective and can generate savings up to 4.45% in diesel consumption for an ideal casewhere all the dwellings have the interface installed.