Nowcasting earthquake damages with Twitter

Abstract

© 2019, The Author(s). The Modified Mercalli intensity scale (Mercalli scale for short) is a qualitative measure used to express the perceived intensity of an earthquake in terms of damages. Accurate intensity reports are vital to estimate the type of emergency response required for a particular earthquake. In addition, Mercalli scale reports are needed to estimate the possible consequences of strong earthquakes in the future, based on the effects of previous events. Emergency offices and seismological agencies worldwide are in charge of producing Mercalli scale reports for each affected location after an earthquake. However, this task relies heavily on human observers in the affected locations, who are not always available or accurate. Consequently, Mercalli scale reports may take up to hours or even days to be published after an earthquake. We address this problem by proposing a method for early prediction of spatial Mercalli scale reports based on people’s reactions to earthquakes i