Stochastic open-pit mine production scheduling: A case study of an iron deposit

Abstract

Production planning decisions in the mining industry are affected by geological, geometallurgical, economic and operational information. However, the traditional approach to address this problem often relies on simplified models that ignore the variability and uncertainty of these parameters. In this paper, two main sources of uncertainty are combined to obtain multiple simulated block models in an iron ore deposit that include the rock type and seven quantitative variables (grades of Fe, SiO2, S, P and K, magnetic ratio and specific gravity). To assess the effect of integrating these two sources of uncertainty in mine planning decision, stochastic and deterministic production scheduling models are applied based on the simulated block models. The results show the capacity of the stochastic mine planning model to identify and minimize risks, obtaining valuable information in ore content or quality at early stages of the project, and improving decision-making with respect to the deterministic production scheduling. Numerically speaking, the stochastic mine planning model improves 6% expected cumulative discounted cash flow and generates 16% more iron ore than deterministic model.