Real-time estimation of Rt for supporting public-health policies against COVID-19
Author
dc.contributor.author
Contreras, Sebastián
Author
dc.contributor.author
Villavicencio, H. Andrés
Author
dc.contributor.author
Medina Ortiz, David
Author
dc.contributor.author
Saavedra, Claudia P.
Author
dc.contributor.author
Olivera Nappa, Álvaro
Admission date
dc.date.accessioned
2021-07-01T23:57:03Z
Available date
dc.date.available
2021-07-01T23:57:03Z
Publication date
dc.date.issued
2020
Cita de ítem
dc.identifier.citation
Frontiers in Public Health December 2020 | Volume 8 | Article 556689
es_ES
Identifier
dc.identifier.other
10.3389/fpubh.2020.556689
Identifier
dc.identifier.uri
https://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/180369
Abstract
dc.description.abstract
In the absence of a consensus protocol to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2,
policymakers need real-time indicators to support decisions in public health matters.
The Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) represents the number of secondary infections
generated per each case and can be dramatically modified by applying effective
interventions. However, current methodologies to calculate Rt from data remain
somewhat cumbersome, thus raising a barrier between its timely calculation and
application by policymakers. In this work, we provide a simple mathematical formulation
for obtaining the effective reproduction number in real-time using only and directly daily
official case reports, obtained by modifying the equations describing the viral spread. We
numerically explore the accuracy and limitations of the proposed methodology, which
was demonstrated to provide accurate, timely, and intuitive results. We illustrate the use
of our methodology to study the evolution of the pandemic in different iconic countries,
and to assess the efficacy and promptness of different public health interventions.
es_ES
Patrocinador
dc.description.sponsorship
Centre for Biotechnology and Bioengineering-CeBiB (PIA project, Conicyt, Chile)
FB0001
Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT)
21181435