Computing turning point monthly probability of the argentine economy according to the leading index. 1973-2000

Author	dc.contributor.author	Jorrat, Juan Mario
Author	dc.contributor.author	Cerro, Ana María	es_CL
Admission date	dc.date.accessioned	2011-01-06T14:08:20Z
Available date	dc.date.available	2011-01-06T14:08:20Z
Publication date	dc.date.issued	2000-12
Cita de ítem	dc.identifier.citation	Estudios de economía. Vol.27 No. 2 Diciembre 2000 Pags. 279-295	en_US
Identifier	dc.identifier.uri	https://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/127860
Abstract	dc.description.abstract	Two indicators of the Argentinean economic cycle prove to be useful for economic forecasts, the leading and coincident indexes. The former points out the level of economic activity monthly. The latter anticipates the future direction of the economy. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the monthly peak and trough probabilities, in the business and growth cycles using the Neftci’s sequential probability recursion. We first determine the probability density function that best adjusts to the observed frequency of the monthly leading index rate of change. The results obtained by the probabilities are evaluated in each case.	en_US
Lenguage	dc.language.iso	en	en_US
Publisher	dc.publisher	Universidad de Chile. Facultad de Economía y Negocios	en_US
Keywords	dc.subject	Economic cycles	en_US
Título	dc.title	Computing turning point monthly probability of the argentine economy according to the leading index. 1973-2000	en_US
Document type	dc.type	Artículo de revista