Particle-Filtering-Based Discharge Time Prognosis for Lithium-Ion Batteries With a Statistical Characterization of Use Profiles

Abstract

We present the implementation of a particle-filteringbased prognostic framework that utilizes statistical characterization of use profiles to (i) estimate the state-of-charge (SOC), and (ii) predict the discharge time of energy storage devices (lithium-ion batteries). The proposed approach uses a novel empirical statespace model, inspired by battery phenomenology, and particle-filtering algorithms to estimate SOC and other unknown model parameters in real-time. The adaptation mechanism used during the filtering stage improves the convergence of the state estimate, and provides adequate initial conditions for the prognosis stage. SOC prognosis is implemented using a particle-filtering-based framework that considers a statistical characterization of uncertainty for future discharge profiles based on maximum likelihood estimates of transition probabilities for a two-state Markov chain. All algorithms have been trained and validated using experimental data acquired from one Li-Ion 26650 and two Li-Ion 18650 cells, and considering different operating conditions.