Serie Documentos de Trabajo, No. 429, pp. 1 - 38, Septiembre, 2016
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Identifier
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https://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/140504
Abstract
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Using detailed administrative and individual data on schooling and crime records
from Chile, we estimate the effect of grade retention between 4th and 8th grade
on juvenile crime. We base our research on the rule which specifies that students
who fail more than one subject must repeat the year. We present two empirical
strategies to address the strong evidence that the forcing variable is – locally
– manipulated. First, we follow Barreca, Guldi, Lindo, and Waddell (2011) in
implementing a donut-hole fuzzy regression discontinuity design (FRD). Second,
we extend the approach developed by Keele, Titiunik, and Zubizarreta (2015) to
implement a method that combines matching with FRD. These two methodologies
deliver similar results and neither show a statistically significant effect on a
placebo test. According to our results, grade retention increases the probability of
juvenile crime by 1.6 percentage point (pp), an increase of 33% (higher for males
and low SES students). We also find that grade retention increases the probability
of dropping out by 1.5pp. Regarding mechanisms, our findings suggest that the
effect of grade retention on crime does not only manifest itself indirectly as a result
of its effect on dropping out. Furthermore, the effect of grade retention on crime
is worsened when students switch schools right after failing the grade.
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Lenguage
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en
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Publisher
dc.publisher
Universidad de Chile. Facultad de Economía y Negocios