Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile
Author
dc.contributor.author
Castillo, Andrea
Author
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Alo, Dominique
Author
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González Pérez, Benito
Author
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Samaniego, Horacio
Admission date
dc.date.accessioned
2018-08-27T20:32:56Z
Available date
dc.date.available
2018-08-27T20:32:56Z
Publication date
dc.date.issued
2018
Cita de ítem
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PeerJ 6:e4907
es_ES
Identifier
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2167-8359
Identifier
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10.7717/peerj.4907
Identifier
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https://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/151311
Abstract
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Background: The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe).
Methods: We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests.
Results: We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages.
Discussion: Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics
es_ES
Patrocinador
dc.description.sponsorship
CONICYT through grant Fondecyt
1161280
CONICYT through grant FONDEF
D10I1038
CONICYT
21150634