Identifying optimal portfolios of resilient network Investments against natural hazards, With applications to earthquakes

Abstract

Although extreme natural disasters have occurred all over the world throughout history, power systems planners do not usually recognize them within network investment methodologies. Moreover, planners had historically focused on reliability approaches based on average (rather than risk) performance indicators, undermining the effects of high impact and low probability events on investment decisions. To move towards a resilience centred approach, we propose a practical framework that can be used to identify network investments that offer the highest level of hedge against risks caused by natural hazards. In a first level, our framework proposes network enhancements and, in a second level, uses a simulation to evaluate the resilience level improvements associated with the network investment propositions. The simulator includes 4 phases: threat characterization, vulnerability of systems components, system response, and system restoration, which are simulated in a sequential Monte Carlo fashion. We use this modeling framework to find optimal portfolio solutions for resilient network enhancements. Through several case studies with applications to earthquakes, we distinguish the fundamental differences between reliability- and resilience-driven enhancements, and demonstrate the advantages of combining transmission investments with installation of backup distributed generation.