Survival analysis after hip fracture: higher mortality than the general population and delayed surgery increases the risk at any time

Abstract

Purpose: To estimate survival curves in patients with hip fracture according to gender, age, type of fracture, and waiting time for surgery and to compare them with the life expectancy of the general population. The study hypothesis is that survival after hip fractures is significantly lower than in the general population, especially in cases that underwent delayed surgery, regardless of age and gender. Methods: A survival analysis study was designed and approved by our institutional ethics review board. All patients who were coded with a diagnosis of hip fracture from 2002 to 2018 were included in the study. A total of 1176 patients were included, and the median age was 81 years (18-105 years). Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were performed to compare survival curves between those who underwent surgery on time and those with surgical delays. An exponential multivariate regression model was estimated, and a hazard ratio (HR) was reported for age, gender, and wait time for surgery. A significance of 5% was used, and a confidence interval level of 95% was reported. Results: The Kaplan-Meier curves for delayed surgery (log-rank,p = 0.00) and the age group (log-rank,p = 0.00) were significantly different. Exponential regression estimated an HR 1.05 (1.05-1.07) for age, HR 1.80 (1.51-2.13) for men, and HR 1.93 (1.61-2.31) for each day of wait for surgery. Conclusions: The 2 significant findings of this study are that hip fracture patients over 40 years old have a higher risk of dying at any time compared to the general population and that the waiting time for surgery (a modifiable factor) decreases survival rates at any time.