Lockdowns lose one third of their impact on mobility in a month

Abstract

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic spread across the world over the past year, many countries imposed lockdowns in the form of stay at home requirements on their citizens to mitigate its spread. We analyze mobility data from 93 countries implementing lockdowns to investigate their immediate impact on mobility and the subsequent evolution of mobility. We find that at the start of a lockdown, median mobility is reduced to 36% below the baseline, and by another 18% in the subsequent 2 weeks. 70 countries had lockdowns lasting beyond 4 weeks and showed a significant reduction in mobility compared to that prior to the lockdown. Mobility was at its minimum 18 days into the lockdown for the median country. Comparing this minimum mobility to the average mobility 2 weeks before the lockdown, we observe a median reduction of 50 percentage points, evidencing that lockdowns reduce mobility. For 59 of these 70 countries, lockdowns lasted at least 4 weeks after reaching minimum mobility and most observed a significant rebound in mobility during the lockdown period. For the median country, 30.1% of the mobility reduction achieved is lost within 4 weeks, and lockdowns lose all their impact on mobility in 112.1 days. Overall, our findings show that while lockdowns significantly reduce mobility, this impact is also subject to fatigue as the lockdown period extends longer. The magnitude of mobility reductions achieved and fatigues reported in this research can help policy makers anticipate the likely impact of their lockdown policies.