"Fallas en el anclaje de expectativas: un estudio sobre Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido"

Abstract

This study analyzes whether inflation targeting by central banks effectively anchors households’ inflation expectations in the United States and the United Kingdom. By replicating and updating the methodology of Afrouzi et al. (2015), this research uses survey data from consumers and experts to assess five key dimensions of expectation anchoring: proximity to the target, dispersion, individual confidence, forecast stability, and the decoupling of short- and long-term expectations. The results show that consumer expectations in both countries remain significantly detached from official targets, are highly dispersed, volatile, and strongly influenced by short-term movements—indicating a generalized lack of anchoring. These findings suggest that inflation targeting alone has not proven to be an effective mechanism for coordinating expectations in contexts of high uncertainty. The study highlights the importance of improving central bank communication to enhance the credibility and effectiveness of monetary policy.