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Authordc.contributor.authorEngel Goetz, Eduardo 
Authordc.contributor.authorVenetoulias, Achilles 
Admission datedc.date.accessioned2017-11-07T20:19:12Z
Available datedc.date.available2017-11-07T20:19:12Z
Publication datedc.date.issued1992
Cita de ítemdc.identifier.citationJournal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 87, pp. 933 - 941, Enero, 1992es_ES
Identifierdc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/145506
Abstractdc.description.abstractOn October 5, 1988, Chileans decided by plebiscite to oust General Pinochet from power and have free presidential elections in 1989. This article describes the projections that the authors made for the results of the plebiscite from early returns. From a statistical point of view, what made these projections different from those made in other countries was the complete lack of historic data. Furthermore, the Pinochet government carried out a campaign to discredit the projection effort. Uncertainty about both the data and the unpredictable political climate on the night of the plebiscite influenced the choice of the statistical methodology. The predictions, based on a 10% sample of the first one-third of the votes counted, were within one-half a percentage point of the true outcome. The described methodology could prove useful in projections of other elections that will take place under similar conditions (e.g., in Eastern Europe).es_ES
Lenguagedc.language.isoenes_ES
Publisherdc.publisherJSTORes_ES
Type of licensedc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Chile*
Link to Licensedc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/cl/*
Sourcedc.sourceJournal of the American Statistical Associationes_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectElectiones_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectPredictiones_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectProjectiones_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectSamplinges_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectStratificationes_ES
Títulodc.titleThe Chilean Plebiscite: Projections Without Historic Dataes_ES
Document typedc.typeArtículo de revista
Catalogueruchile.catalogadorrcaes_ES
Indexationuchile.indexArtículo de publicación ISIes_ES


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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Chile
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Chile