We estimate an aggregate time-varying risk aversion function using option, stock return and
macroeconomic data for a sample of 8 countries. We document that, in most of the countries,
the degree of risk aversion is countercyclical. Moreover, we show that the estimated risk
aversion function forecasts monthly stock index returns up to 12 months ahead. This effect is
statistically significant in panel regressions, and it survives the inclusion of additional control
variables.