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Authordc.contributor.authorChadwick Irarrázaval, Cristián
Authordc.contributor.authorGironás, Jorge
Authordc.contributor.authorBarría Sandoval, Pilar Andrea
Authordc.contributor.authorVicuña, Sebastián
Authordc.contributor.authorMeza, Francisco
Cita de ítemdc.identifier.citationWater 2021, 13, 64es_ES
Abstractdc.description.abstractClimate change is modifying the way we design and operate water infrastructure, including reservoirs. A particular issue is that current infrastructure and reservoir management rules will likely operate under changing conditions different to those used in their design. Thus, there is a big need to identify the obsolescence of current operation rules under climate change, without compromising the proper treatment of uncertainty. Acknowledging that decision making benefits from the scientific knowledge, mainly when presented in a simple and easy-to-understand manner, such identification-and the corresponding uncertainty-must be clearly described and communicated. This paper presents a methodology to identify, in a simple and useful way, the time when current reservoir operation rules fail under changing climate by properly treating and presenting its aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and showing its deep uncertainty. For this purpose, we use a reliability-resilience-vulnerability framework with a General Circulation Models (GCM) ensemble under the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios to compare the historical and future long-term reservoir system performances under its current operation rule in the Limari basin, Chile, as a case study. The results include percentiles that define the uncertainty range, showing that during the 21st century there are significant changes at the time-based reliability by the 2030s, resilience between the 2030s and 2040s, volume-based reliability by the 2080s, and the maximum failure by the 2070s. Overall, this approach allows the identification of the timing of systematic failures in the performance of water systems given a certain performance threshold, which contributes to the planning, prioritization and implementation timing of adaptation alternatives.es_ES
Patrocinadordc.description.sponsorshipComision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT) CONICYT FONDECYT 1200135 International Development Research Center Grant 107081-001 Vicerrectoria de Investigacion y Desarrollo (VID) from Universidad de Chile UI-007/19 Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT) 21160861 Canada-Chile Leadership Exchange program Sociedad de Canal del Maipo VRI at Universidad Catolica CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017 15110020es_ES
Type of licensedc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States*
Link to Licensedc.rights.uri*
Keywordsdc.subjectDecision makinges_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectReservoir operationes_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectTime of emergencees_ES
Títulodc.titleAssessing reservoir performance under climate change. When is it going to be too late If current water management is not changed?es_ES
Document typedc.typeArtículo de revistaes_ES
dc.description.versiondc.description.versionVersión publicada - versión final del editores_ES
dcterms.accessRightsdcterms.accessRightsAcceso abiertoes_ES
Indexationuchile.indexArtículo de publícación WoSes_ES

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States