Financiamiento mediante emisiones accionarias o bonos corporativos mercado chileno

Abstract

El presente seminario utiliza un modelo predictivo que tiene por objetivo poder plasmar los efectos de variables intr nsecas de cada empresa y variables de mercado en la probabilidad de elecci on entre nanciarse por medio de deuda o de emisiones secundarias de acciones. Por variables intr nsecas se usa el Desv o del Leverage Objetivo, Raz on Deuda de largo plazo a EBITDA, una medida de Riesgo de la compa~n a, una variable binaria de Grupo Controlador y Tama~no de la Empresa. En variables de mercado se utiliz o la Tasa de Pol tica Monetaria y una medida del retorno de la acci on. En el estudio se presenta un Modelo que estudia esta elecci on, sin embargo, se intent o mejorar la capacidad de predicci on incorporando el Monto de la Emisi on, con resultados satisfactorios y destacando que siguieron siendo signi cativas Desv o de Leverage Objetivo, el riesgo y el Ratio Deuda de Largo Plazo a EBITDA.

The present study uses a predictive model which has the objective of measuring the e ects of intrinsic variables of each company and variables related with market conditions on the probability of choosing between two nancing possibilities: debt or seasoned equity o erings. For intrinsic variables we took into account: the distance between its current and its target Leverage, its payback ratio, a risk measure of the Company, the Company's size, in addition to a binary variable of Company's property. As for the market variables, were used the Monetary Policy Rate established by the Central Bank of Chile and a measure of Return of the Market Shares. However, we attempted to improve the predictive value of this speci cation through the incorporation of the Amount of the Issue, with satisfactory results.