Modeling the public health impact of different meningococcal vaccination strategies with 4CMenB and MenACWY versus the current toddler MenACWY national immunization program in Chile

Abstract

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is an uncommon yet unpredictable, severe, and life-threatening disease with the highest burden in young children. In Chile, most IMD is caused by meningococcal serogroup B (MenB) and W (MenW) infection. In response to a MenW outbreak in 2012, a toddler vaccination program was implemented using quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine against serogroups A, C, W and Y (MenACWY). The vaccine program, however, does not protect infants or other unvaccinated age groups and does not protect against MenB IMD. Since 2017, MenB IMD cases are becoming increasingly prevalent. Using a dynamic transmission model adapted for Chile, this analysis assessed the public health impact (reduction in IMD cases, long-term sequelae, deaths, and qualityadjusted life-years) of six alternative vaccination strategies using MenACWY and/or the four-component MenB (4CMenB) vaccine in infants, toddlers, and/or adolescents compared to the National Immunization Program (NIP) implemented in 2014. Strategies that added infant 4CMenB to MenACWY in toddlers or adolescents would prevent more IMD than the current NIP, observed within the first 5 years of the program. Replacing the NIP by an adolescent MenACWY strategy would prevent more IMD in the longer term, once herd immunity is established to protect unvaccinated infants or older age groups. The strategy that maximized reduction of IMD cases and associated sequelae in all age groups with immediate plus long-term benefits included infant 4CMenB and MenACWY in both toddlers and adolescents. This analysis can help policymakers determine the best strategy to control IMD in Chile and improve public health. A set of audio slides linked to this manuscript can be found at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16837543. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY (PLS) What is the context? Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is a severe, sometimes fatal, unpredictable disease with highest rates in infants, young children, and adolescents. It is caused by different serogroups of Neisseria meningitidis bacteria. Most cases in Chile are due to meningococcal serogroups B (MenB) and W (MenW). Following a MenW IMD outbreak in 2012, vaccination was introduced, leading to the current National Immunization Program (NIP) in toddlers with quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenACWY) (protecting against IMD caused by MenA, C, W, and Y). What is new? A disease model to predict the impact of vaccination strategies in the Chilean population compared six alternative strategies, using the multi-component MenB (4CMenB) vaccine for infants (protecting against MenB, with potential cross-protection against MenW and Y IMD) and/or the MenACWY vaccine for toddlers and/or adolescents. What is the impact? Results, compared to the NIP, show that: Strategy 1 (a program targeting only infants with 4CMenB) would reduce more MenB cases but fewer MenA, C, W and Y cases resulting in a lower reduction of total IMD cases in the long term; Strategy 3 (a program targeting only adolescents with MenACWY) would have a similar effect to the NIP in the short term but a far greater IMD reduction in the long term (as vaccinating this age group eventually reduces transmission to other age groups, reducing their risk of disease); all the other strategies targeted more than one age group, further reducing numbers of IMD cases compared with the NIP. The greatest benefits were seen with infant 4CMenB vaccination combined with toddler and adolescent MenACWY vaccination. Results can help policymakers determine the best IMD strategy to maximize the benefits of available meningococcal vaccines.