We are not dead . . . - The quantitative theory and the relation between money and inflation

Abstract

This paper presents a robust finding for the relationship between money growth and inflation in Chile: inflation causes (precedes) money and not the other way around. This result holds irrespectively of the way in which monetary policy was conducted, the sample period, the choice of monetary aggregate, the consideration of conditional second moments, or the inclusion of inflation targets. A simple theoretical model is used to motivate why money and inflation are not necessarily correlated.