Predicting ecosystem collapse: Spatial factors that influence risks to tropical ecosystems
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2015Metadata
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Crespin Guzmán, Silvio
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Predicting ecosystem collapse: Spatial factors that influence risks to tropical ecosystems
Abstract
Biological traits explain extinction at the species level, but what factors explain collapse at the
ecosystem level? Using ecosystem Red List criteria from the International Union for Conservation of Nature, we
calculated risk of collapse in El Salvador’s ecosystems and determined that it is nonrandom, indicating the existence
of explaining factors.We present the first model to predict risk of ecosystem collapse, showing that human density
and soil capability are significantly associated with risk of collapse and explain 68% of the total variation.To attain
an effective management strategy for global ecosystems, we suggest not only determining risk of collapse, but also
the building of simple prediction models to establish priorities, and the founding of a worldwide database at the
ecosystem level once a single classification system is agreed upon.
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Artículo de publicación ISI
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URI: https://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/133037
DOI: DOI: 10.1111/aec.12209
ISSN: 1442-9985
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Austral Ecology (2015) 40, 492–501
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