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Authordc.contributor.authorLobos, German 
Authordc.contributor.authorMora González, Marcos 
Authordc.contributor.authorSaens, Rodrigo 
Authordc.contributor.authorMuñoz, Tristan 
Authordc.contributor.authorSchnettler, Berta 
Admission datedc.date.accessioned2016-05-13T15:58:02Z
Available datedc.date.available2016-05-13T15:58:02Z
Publication datedc.date.issued2015
Cita de ítemdc.identifier.citationRevista Brasileira de Fruticultura Volumen: 37 Número: 4 Páginas: 870-882en_US
Identifierdc.identifier.otherDOI: 10.1590/0100-2945-204/14
Identifierdc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/138286
General notedc.descriptionArtículo de publicación ISIen_US
Abstractdc.description.abstractThe traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intra-temporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.en_US
Patrocinadordc.description.sponsorshipDireccion de Investigacion of the Universidad de Talca E000607en_US
Lenguagedc.language.isoenen_US
Publisherdc.publisherSoc. Brasileira Fruticulturaen_US
Type of licensedc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Chile*
Link to Licensedc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/cl/*
Keywordsdc.subjectRiesgo (Economía)en_US
Keywordsdc.subjectValor en riesgoen_US
Keywordsdc.subjectProbabilistic forecastsen_US
Títulodc.titleIncluding risk in economic feasibility analysis: a stochastic simulation model for blueberry investment decisions in Chileen_US
Document typedc.typeArtículo de revista


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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Chile
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Chile