Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change
Martínez Harms, María José
Bryan, Brett A.
Figueroa Benavides, Eugenio
Runting, Rebecca K.
Wilson, Kerrie A.
Cita de ítem
Ecosystem Services 25 (2017) 56–68
Scenarios provide a platform to explore the provision of ecosystem services under global change. Despite
their relevance to land-use policy, there is a paucity of such assessments, particularly in developing countries.
Central Chile provides a good example from the Latin American realm as the region has experienced
rapid transformation from natural landscapes to urbanization and agricultural development. Local
experts from Central Chile identified climate change, urbanization, and fire regimes as key drivers of
change. Scenarios depicting plausible future trajectories of change were developed to assess the combined
effects on carbon storage, wine production, and scenic beauty for the year 2050. Across the region,
the action of the drivers reduced the total amount of carbon storage (by 85%) and wine production (by
52%) compared with a baseline scenario, with minor changes incurred for scenic beauty. The carbon storage
and wine production had declined by 90% and scenic beauty by 28% when the reaction to changed fire
regimes was also taken into account. The cumulative outcomes of climate change and urbanization are
likely to place substantial pressures on ecosystem services in Central Chile by mid-century, revealing
the need for stronger planning regulations to manage land-use change.
Ministry of Education from the Chilean
Government / Australian Research Council
CSIRO Agriculture and Food, and Land and
11140357. University of
Queensland – Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research