Transit reforms in intermediate cities of Colombia: An ex-post evaluation

Abstract

We use monthly data on transit supply and ridership to evaluate the impact of BRT type reforms in intermediate cities in Colombia. We find that these reforms are associated with a decrease in aggregate transit ridership. This is particularly troubling since it points to a reduction in the attractiveness of public transport for users and a substitution to other potentially more unsustainable modes, such as private vehicles or informal taxi services. We also show that reform reduced fleet size and commercial kilometers supplied and we conjecture that this, together with additional transfers required in the new systems, raised the generalized cost of transport for transit services. We present circumstantial evidence that this conjecture is correct and argue that this was probably the case in other Latin American experiences, such as Santiago, Lima and Bogota (SITP).