Author | dc.contributor.author | Canals Lambarri, Mauricio | |
Admission date | dc.date.accessioned | 2011-05-18T15:11:45Z | |
Available date | dc.date.available | 2011-05-18T15:11:45Z | |
Publication date | dc.date.issued | 2010-08-02 | |
Cita de ítem | dc.identifier.citation | Rev. méd. Chile v.138 n.9 Santiago sep. 2010 | es_CL |
Identifier | dc.identifier.issn | 0034-9887 | |
Identifier | dc.identifier.uri | https://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/119197 | |
Abstract | dc.description.abstract | In order to increase awareness of the pandemic and to streamline control
measures before any new outbreak of infl uenza we analyze the behavior of the
cases of Chile and from 9 countries with more cases in 2009. Reproductive numbers,
doubling times and estimations of susceptible and infected at the end of the
epidemic were estimated. Epidemic curves to the situation in Chile under different
initial conditions were adjusted and simulations for different reproductive
numbers and notifi cation scenarios were performed. The reproductive numbers
varied between 1.37 and 1.82, with doubling times of between 5 and 8 days at 30
days of the epidemic. According to this, the proportions of infected by the end of
the epidemic vary between 58% and 78.5%. The transmission coeffi cient ranged
from 2 to 132 new cases per day x 106 susceptible individuals. The adjustments
showed that the onset of the epidemic probably had more cases than reported.
All estimates suggest that there must have been a large number of susceptible and
therefore can not be explained as small outbreaks in 2009. A large number of
susceptible individuals may still exist who are at risk from a possible new outbreak. | es_CL |
Lenguage | dc.language.iso | es | es_CL |
Publisher | dc.publisher | Sociedad Médica de Santiago | es_CL |
Keywords | dc.subject | Disease outbreaks | es_CL |
Título | dc.title | Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en Chile | es_CL |
Document type | dc.type | Artículo de revista | |