Forecasting Wage Inequality

Abstract

Wage inequality in Chile has remained high for decades and it is currently at the center of the political agenda. Increasing education of workers is expected to contribute to reduce wage inequality. Based on historical trends of age, education, and returns to education, this paper attempts to forecast wage inequality. Despite an increase in average earnings due to higher levels of education of workers, high levels of wage inequality within age groups and within education groups produce that forecasted wage inequality remains high for the next 10- year period. The structure of the Chilean labor market appears to imply that there is a high level of underlying wage inequality. Nevertheless, the good news are that the labor market structure seems to prevent further deteriorations of wage inequality.