Show simple item record

Authordc.contributor.authorAraya Osses, Daniela 
Authordc.contributor.authorCasanueva, Ana 
Authordc.contributor.authorRomán Figueroa, Celián 
Authordc.contributor.authorUribe Meneses, Juan Manuel 
Authordc.contributor.authorPaneque Corrales, Manuel 
Admission datedc.date.accessioned2020-10-19T15:56:55Z
Available datedc.date.available2020-10-19T15:56:55Z
Publication datedc.date.issued2020
Cita de ítemdc.identifier.citationClimate Dynamics (2020) 54:4309–4330es_ES
Identifierdc.identifier.other10.1007/s00382-020-05231-4
Identifierdc.identifier.urihttp://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/177214
Abstractdc.description.abstractGeneral circulation models (GCMs) allow the analysis of potential changes in the climate system under different emissions scenarios. However, their spatial resolution is too coarse to produce useful climate information for impact/adaptation assessments. This is especially relevant for regions with complex orography and coastlines, such as in Chile. Downscaling techniques attempt to reduce the gap between global and regional/local scales; for instance, statistical downscaling methods establish empirical relationships between large-scale predictors and local predictands. Here, statistical downscaling was employed to generate climate change projections of daily maximum/minimum temperatures and precipitation in more than 400 locations in Chile using the analog method, which identifies the most similar or analog day based on similarities of large-scale patterns from a pool of historical records. A cross-validation framework was applied using different sets of potential predictors from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis following the perfect prognosis approach. The best-performing set was used to downscale six different CMIP5 GCMs (forced by three representative concentration pathways, RCPs). As a result, minimum and maximum temperatures are projected to increase in the entire Chilean territory throughout all seasons. Specifically, the minimum (maximum) temperature is projected to increase by more than 2 degrees C (6 degrees C) under the RCP8.5 scenario in the austral winter by the end of the twenty-first century. Precipitation changes exhibit a larger spatial variability. By the end of the twenty-first century, a winter precipitation decrease exceeding 40% is projected under RCP8.5 in the central-southern zone, while an increase of over 60% is projected in the northern Andes.es_ES
Lenguagedc.language.isoenes_ES
Publisherdc.publisherSpringeres_ES
Type of licensedc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Chile*
Link to Licensedc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/cl/*
Sourcedc.sourceClimate Dynamicses_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectStatistical downscalinges_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectPredictorses_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectClimate changees_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectGCMses_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectTemperaturees_ES
Keywordsdc.subjectPrecipitationes_ES
Títulodc.titleClimate change projections of temperature and precipitation in Chile based on statistical downscalinges_ES
Document typedc.typeArtículo de revistaes_ES
dcterms.accessRightsdcterms.accessRightsAcceso Abierto
Catalogueruchile.catalogadorapces_ES
Indexationuchile.indexArtículo de publicación ISIes_ES


Files in this item

Icon

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Chile
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Chile