Empirical analysis of systematic errors in chilean GDP forecasts
Empirical-Analysis.pdf (89.26Kb)Abstract
This paper presents a statistical comparison between the actual and predicted
evolution of the Chilean GDP for the period 0875Ð0887 made by several
forecasters[ We show that the forecasters systematically underestimate the
true growth rate of the economy[ The magnitude of this bias tends to be
correlated with the phase of the business cycle.
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Journal of Forecasting 20 (1); 37-45, jan 2001
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