Spatial global assessment of the pest Bagrada hilaris (Burmeister) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae): current and future scenarios

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The insectBagrada hilaris(Burmeister) an important pest worldwide, mainly due to the serious economic lossesincurred and the large number of zones invaded. However, current and future spatial distributions of this pest, and the total areaof cropland potentially affected have not been estimated. Here, we aim to: (1) estimate the potential geographic distribution ofB. hilaris; (2) quantify the total area of cropland potentially affected worldwide, and in two recently colonized zones (Californiaand Chile); and (3) estimate future changes in distribution under different climate change scenarios.RESULTS: We found thatB. hilarisshows high environmental suitability in Mediterranean and arid regions, potentially affecting1 108 184.1 km2of cropland worldwide. The most affected continents were Asia and America, with 309 659.8 and 294 638.6 km2of cropland at risk. More than 50% of cropland areas are at risk in seven countries. In California and central Chile, 43.7% and50% of susceptible crops are at a high level of risk, respectively. Climate change scenarios predict an increase in the potentialdistribution ofB. hilarisworldwide; America being the most affected continent.CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide a spatially explicit baseline from which to focus efforts on the prevention, management andcontrol of this pest worldwide.