The upper range limit of alien plants is not in equilibrium with climate in the Andes of central Chile

Abstract

Alien plant species are colonizing high-elevation areas along roadsides. In this study, we evaluated whether the distributions of alien plants in the central Chilean mountains have reached climatic equilibrium (i.e., upper distribution limits consistent with their climatic requirements). First, we evaluated whether the upper elevational limits of alien plants changed between 2008 and 2018 based on the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) database. Second, we compared the observed upper elevational limits with the upper limits predicted by each species' global climatic niche. On average across species, the upper elevation limit did not change between 2008 and 2018. However, most species maintained the same limit or shifted downward, while only 23% of the species shifted upwards. This lack of change does not mean that the species' distributions are in equilibrium with the climate, because the observed upper limit was lower than the limit predicted by the global niche model for 87% of species. Our results suggest that alien species in this study region may not only be climate-limited, but could also be limited by other local-scale factors, such as seed dispersal, intermittent disturbance rates, soil type and biotic interactions.